Realignment Re-run

Now that spring ball is over and teams are gearing up for the summer, I thought I'd look in depth at the leagues affected by re-alignment, and in particular the teams that switched conferences.


Big 12
Lost members: Colorado, Nebraska

Outlook: Better than at this time last year. The new TV deal certainly helps the stability of the conference, but the revenue-sharing inequalities that drove Nebraska and Colorado away have not been improved; rather, the money is split less evenly than ever. The schools without power, however, will have to settle for this structure - their alternative is Conference USA.

Effect on Championship Race: Interesting. The departure of two schools leaves the Big 12 with a round-robin schedule, and no title game, which has been troublesome in the past in knocking off national championship contenders. (Nebraska in 1996, Oklahoma in 2003, almost Texas in 2009)

***See more after the link***


WAC
Lost member: Boise State, Hawaii (2012), Fresno State (2012), Nevada (2012)
New members: UTSA (2012?), Texas State (2012?)

Outlook: Not good. The top four programs have defected, and the WAC has no one to replace them with (unless you count a FCS school and a soon-to-be FCS school that has not yet played a single football game). Likely, the WAC will be effectively defunct as a football conference in 2012.

Effect on Championship Race: Devastating. Of the remaining schools: here are the schools with the best record in each of the past six years:
2010: Louisiana Tech: 5-7 (4-4)
2009: Idaho: 8-5 (4-4)*
2008: Louisiana Tech; 8-5 (5-3)*
2007: Louisiana Tech; 5-7 (4-4)
2006: San Jose State; 9-4 (5-3)*
2005: Louisiana Tech; 7-4 (6-2)
*Bowl Game
That's right. Take away Boise State, Hawaii, Fresno State, and Nevada, and the conference has just 3 bowl teams. In the last six years.


Mountain West
Lost members: Utah, BYU, TCU (2012)
New members: Boise State, Hawaii* (2012), Fresno State (2012), Nevada (2012)

Outlook: Good. The Mountain West will have an 11 team league in 2012, and might be able to scrounge up a BCS bid (for a year or two). Defection to the AQ conferences will always be a concern, but the Mountain West should be able to maintain its position as the best non-AQ conference.

Effect on Championship Race: Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Boise State and Nevada could become the new Mountain West's TCU and Utah. The race itself won't be too changed. BCS busters should come out of this conference every few years.


PAC-12 (formerly PAC-10)
New members: Colorado, Utah

Outlook: Excellent. Commissioner Larry Scott knows what he's doing. Nearly pulling off the PAC-16 coup, Scott had to settle for Plan B (which was still pretty good in its own right).

Effect on Championship Race: Maybe. The biggest wild card will be the addition of a conference championship game. Utah may very well come in and challenge, but this year at least, it's Oregon's title to lose.


B1G (can we write "formerly Big Ten"? Even if B1G is still pronounced "Big Ten"?)
New member: Nebraska

Outlook: Good. The Ohio State scandal makes the conference look bad, but Jim Delaney did a masterful job of taking quality over quantity-of-TV-sets. There were a few presidents who reportedly would have rather invited Rutgers over the Cornhuskers, but Nebraska seems to fit right in. And couldn't get away from the Texas-centric Big 12 soon enough. The B1G remains one of the most powerful conferences (if not the most powerful) politically, and the conference's stability is second to none.

Effect on Championship Race: See PAC-12. The biggest change will be the championship game in Indianapolis in December. Nebraska figures to make a push in the West division (we do not refer to the divisions-that-must-not-be-named) and Wisconsin appears to be the East Division favorite.


Big East
New member: TCU (2012)

Outlook: Rosy. Just a few years ago, the Big East was a mess, but with expansion plans in the works, the conference will sign a huge TV contract and mosey on into the next decade. Like the Mountain West, its teams will always be targets of expansion (Clemson, West Virginia to SEC?), but in the interim, the Big East is stable, and with the addition of TCU in 2012, may become competitive.

Effect on Championship Race: Seismic. If TCU was in the Big East, they would probably be three-time reigning champions. Pittsburgh and West Virginia, the conferences perennial powers, have slumped, and UConn's BCS whooping is probably as high as the school can reach. USF has always managed to disappoint. TCU could be the champion from year 1.