More Machine than Man - Week 13

Last week: More Machine than Man (9-8)
Overall: 23-23 (+/-0) 50%

Computer Picks for Week 13:

Texas A&M 28, Texas 19
Alabama 30, Auburn 27
Oregon 39, Arizona 21
Boise State 41, Nevada 26
Ohio State 42, Michigan 23
Arkansas 28, LSU 26
Utah 31, BYU 19
Florida State 25, Florida 24
South Carolina 22, Clemson 19
Oklahoma State 36, Oklahoma 33

*Since the Man and the Machine have the same picks this week, the tie-breaker will be a special tie-breaker upset pick.


The Man predicts Penn State will beat Michigan State, 23-17.
The Machine predicts a Spartan win, 27-21

Week 13 Predictions

Week 12 Record: 8-2
Week 12 vs. the Machine's Record: 8-9 (-1)
Overall Record: 81-39 (67.5%)
Overall vs. the Machine: 23-23 (+/-0) (50%)

Thursday, November 25
#20 Texas A&M 17 at #63 Texas 9. An Aggies win would give A&M its first 9-win season since 1998, and Texas its first losing season since 1997. Texas will be lucky to score on the Wrecking Crew. A&M rolls in Austin.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 12

Week 12 Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 81-39 (67.5%)

Week 12 Stream of Consciousness: Fresno State is no pushover, and Boise beat them 51-0, holding the Bulldogs' prolific offense to just over 200 total yards. Say whatever you want about the schedule. When this team is on, they are really, REALLY good... Wisconsin's win at the Big House was just its second in last 20 tries... Stanford has solidified its place as one of the best one-loss teams in the country. Andrew Luck is on fire, even after losing RB Toby Gerhart off last year's record-setting team... Iowa came close to knocking off the Buckeyes, but came up just short, again - last year Iowa seemed to pull out through the close ones. This year, not so much... Virginia Tech will make the trip to Charlotte for the ACCCG for the 4th time in 6 years, to face either NC State or Florida State... It took Arkansas two overtimes to dispatch Mississippi State, another indication that the Bulldogs are on the way up under Dan Mullen. The Hogs are a win against LSU away from third place in the toughest division in football... Jimbo Fisher's team is one NC State loss away from advancing to the ACCCG, a remarkable achievement for the first-year head coach... Speaking of which, the Wolf Pack defeated instate rival UNC to take control of its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic. Hats off to coach O'Brien, whose tenure at the school after leaving Boston College has been full of too many downers... At Wrigley Field, the offenses could only go one direction down the field due to cramped quarters in one endzone, which the Illini did quite well, racking up over FIVE HUNDRED yards rushing on Northwestern.

More Machine than Man - Week 12

Week 11 vs. the Man: 7-7

Week 12 vs. the Man: 7-8

This week's computer picks:

#50 Fresno State 20 @ #4 Boise State 46.
#9 Wisconsin 40 @ #30 Michigan 31.
#8 Stanford 31 @ #60 California 19. 
#7 Ohio State 29 @ #22 Iowa 19.**
#17 Virginia Tech 28 @ #26 Miami 22. 
#14 Arkansas 28 @ #21 Mississippi State 18. 
#29 Florida State 28 @ #31 Maryland 22. 

#31 NC State 28 @ #47 North Carolina 22. 
#57 Illinois 29 @ # 40 Northwestern 21.**

#10 Nebraska 29 @ #18 Texas A&M 26.**

**indicates computer picked straight-up different outcome

Week 12 Predictions

Week 11 Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 73-37 (66.4%)


Friday, November 19
#50 Fresno State 21 @ #4 Boise State 47. How many times do I have to write it: Boise simply does not lose at home. Ever.

Saturday, November 20
#9 Wisconsin 34 @ #30 Michigan 24. Wisconsin just has too much offense for the Wolverine's much-maligned defense to handle.


#8 Stanford 30 @ #60 California 20. THE GAME. Cal is respectable at home, and horrendous on the road. Stanford comes into Strawberry Canyon looking to stay in the BCS race (sort of).


#7 Ohio State 20 @ #22 Iowa 24. UPSET SPECIAL! The Hawkeyes are tremendous in Kinnick Stadium, their sole loss to #9 Wisconsin by 1 point in the final minute. Ohio State hasn't played anyone. No, seriously. Ohio State has a worse strength of schedule to this point than Boise or TCU. (but better than Oregon!)


#17 Virginia Tech 31 @ #26 Miami 17. With a win, Va Tech crushes any hopes Miami had of winning the ACC. Hokies roll.


#14 Arkansas 45 @ #21 Mississippi State 34. The Hogs' Offense will dismantle Miss State's D, and the Bulldogs simply don't have the firepower to keep up.


#29 Florida State 30 @ #31 Maryland 17. Thought about calling the upset here, but Florida State has its eyes on the prize of an ACCCG berth (yes, this is a desireable thing in some places on planet earth).


#31 NC State 28 @ #47 North Carolina 17. North Carolina has the athletes to pull off the upset. Unfortunately, most of them are sitting on the bench, indefinitely.


#57 Illinois 19 @ # 40 Northwestern 27. Gameday comes to Chicago and Wrigley Field for the first football game within the ballpark in decades. Illinois is coming off perhaps the worst loss (it's hard to be precise; there have been so very many bad ones in Zook's time) in the last decade to an abysmal Minnesota team. Northwestern is riding high off a win over Iowa. Those patterns will continue this week.

Game of the Week: #10 Nebraska @ #18 Texas A&M
GOTW Record: 7-4

• Nebraska Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense. The teams are very evenly matched, A&M's rush D is excellent, as is Nebraska's rush offense. The Aggies have been torched through the air, but Nebraska doesn't throw much. +/-0
• Texas A&M Offense vs. Nebraska Defense. The Aggies are going to have to force the run, because there is no way a still-new starting QB breaks the Nebraska Secondary where Jake Locker, Nathan Enderle, Justin Weeden, and Blaine Gabbert have failed. Luckily the NU rush defense is relatively soft. +/-0
• Turnovers. The Aggies are beset by turnovers, which the Nebraska D thrives on. Interceptions will be extremely costly versus the Huskers. Neb -1
• The 12th Man. The Aggies are ready to have a rowdy environment for the Huskers when they arrive in College Station. But the Huskers actually do better on the road than at home, where they have won 9 straight Big 12 road contests. +/-0

The Verdict: Nebraska -1

The Pick: Well, a very big part of me says the Aggies are going to continue their hot streak. Another part says Nebraska's road winning streak is quite impressive. But all streaks have to break sometime. This one says it'll be the Huskers': Texas A&M 31, Nebraska 27.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 11

Last Week's Record: 8-2
More Man than Machine (7-3)
2010 Overall Record: 73-37 (66.4%)


Tied for best week of the year!

Week 11 Stream of Consciousness: Missouri took command of second place in the Big 12 North thanks largely to 4 KSU turnovers. The Tigers can still win the division if Nebraska loses its last two games... What on earth was that, Utah? Notre Dame? Seriously... There are plenty of boosters out there willing to give $200,000 for their team to get to the BCS. Just my opinion... The computer very nearly guessed the score of OSU-PSU. Joe Pa scored the most points he's ever scored at Ohio Stadium, then simply stopped scoring... OU is just barely over 0.500 in away games the last three years, and  exactly 1.000 in home games... The best team in the ACC is Virginia Tech. Who lost to James Madison, lest we forget... Texas A&M has really come on in the last three weeks. Now for the biggest-test of the year. Nebraska... Bama has a chance to knock off rival Auburn and deny the Tigers a chance at the National Championship. Carit ask for much more in a Rivalry game... I got the upset pick (USC over Arizona)! Suck it, computer!

More Machine than Man - Week 11

Computer picks for Week 11:

Kansas State 20, Missouri 25
Utah 34, Notre Dame 20
Georgia 29, Auburn 35*
Ohio State 33, Penn State 14*
Texas Tech 26, Oklahoma 35
Virginia Tech 33, North Carolina 22*
Texas A&M 34, Baylor 27
Alabama 23, Mississippi State 14
Arizona 29, USC 27**
Florida 27, South Carolina 23

*computer pick has much different margin of victory than mine
**computer pick is straight-up different

Week 11 Predictions

Last Week's record: 7-3
Overall Record: 65-35 (65%)

Going for 100% this week!

Saturday, November 13
#28 Kansas State 15 @ #15 Missouri 31. Kansas State is fresh off a win over free-falling Texas, while Missouri was physically dominated in its last two games against Nebraska and Texas Tech. If this game was in Manhattan, the Wildcats might even be favored. But on Senior Day in Columbia, Bill Snyder's crew will fall to third in the Big 12 North.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 10

This week's record: 7-3

2010 record: 65-35 (65%)

Week 10 Stream of Consciousness: How many ACC teams wish they could have gotten to play Virginia Tech in Week 2 instead of Week 10?... There were 105 points scored the last time Michigan and Illinois met in a game. The game of basketball. 67-65 Seriously? TCU's only given up 85 - ALL YEAR... Oklahoma State racked up 725 total yards, whipping Baylor like they wer the Bears of old. However, Baylor still stands at number 2 in the Big 12 South (see "This week's sign of the apocalypse")... Boise rocked Hawaii, while Kellen Moore put up over 500 yards passing. The Broncos' D did a fine job slowing down a Warriors' attack that put up 36 points and 500 yards on USC... The Huskers' QB was out. And his backup. The wind blew at 35mph in Ames, and the Cyclones very nearly pulled off another shocker... Florida State gave up 436 passing yards to UNC, and the yearly "ACC Wheel! Of! Destiny!" has begun (see "Week 10 WTF?!?")... The Mad Hatter strikes again, and I will eat my hat... Stanford became the first team to score more than 30 on Arizona. Don't worry, Wildcats! You'll have more chances to give up 30. You still have to play Oregon!!!... Arkansas took advantage of the Gamecocks' suspect pass defense, but it was the ease at which the Hogs ran the ball that should give Spurrier the most nightmares, as he faces Florida next week in the SEC-East "championship game."

More Machine than Man - Week 10

The computer wants to pick, too! We'll see who comes out on top.
The program is able to calculate projected scores and yardage totals, as well as other stats. Here's what the computer has to say about this week's games:

Georgia Tech 22 @ Virginia Tech 37 (Correct)
Illinois 31 @ Michigan 26
Baylor 33 @ Oklahoma State 41
Hawaii 24 @ Boise State 40
Nebraska 42 @ Iowa State 19
North Carolina 20 @ Florida State 26
Alabama 24 @ LSU 16
Arizona 25 @ Stanford 27
Arkansas 28 @ South Carolina 25
TCU 28 @ Utah 23

Keep in mind, the computer ranks teams, does not predict them. This was an exercise to see whether the formulas can be used in the future as well. We'll see!

Week 10 Predictions

Last Weeks' Record: 4-6
2010 Overall Record: 58-32 (64.4%)


Thursday, November 4
#52 Georgia Tech 17 @ #28 Virginia Tech 30. Virginia Tech's bounced back nicely from its devastating 0-2 start. The road to their 4th ACCCG in 6 years is wide open.