It's that time of year again! Each week, I will be making my predictions as to the outcome of each week's top ten games. Usually I will select the games that ESPN's College Pick'em does, though notably, I will include non-Saturday games.
Thursday, September 1
UNLV 14 @ #11 Wisconsin 41
Though UNLV should be improved this year, they are simply no match for the Badgers at Camp Randall. Wisconsin puts up big numbers on the ground, and Russell Wilson doesn't even need to pass in the second half.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
2011 Preview: Bowl Game Predictions
This year's selection order: (Championship), (Rose), Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
If a bowl with automatic tie-ins loses a team to the national championship, then it can select a replacement team first. (This year, I predict that will be the Rose (Oregon) and the Fiesta (Oklahoma)
In General, only 10+ win teams from AQ conferences are selected for BCS bowls. Of course, 9-3 teams have been selected before (Illinois) but this was generally considered a bad idea, and it is likely that every BCS bowl participant in 2012 will have ten or more wins.
Teams qualifying for BCS games:
ACC- Florida State*(11-2), Virginia Tech (12-1)
Big Ten- Wisconsin*(12-1), Nebraska (10-3)
Big 12- Oklahoma*(12-0), Texas A&M (10-2)
Big East- West Virginia* (10-2)
PAC-12- Oregon*(13-0), Utah (10-2)
SEC- Alabama*(12-1), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (10-3)
[Each conference may only have two representatives]
At-Large- Boise State* (12-0)
* Indicates Automatic Berth
Given the selection order:
BCS Championship: Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU (Replaces Oregon)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M (Replaces Oklahoma) vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Other Bowl Games after the Jump
If a bowl with automatic tie-ins loses a team to the national championship, then it can select a replacement team first. (This year, I predict that will be the Rose (Oregon) and the Fiesta (Oklahoma)
In General, only 10+ win teams from AQ conferences are selected for BCS bowls. Of course, 9-3 teams have been selected before (Illinois) but this was generally considered a bad idea, and it is likely that every BCS bowl participant in 2012 will have ten or more wins.
Teams qualifying for BCS games:
ACC- Florida State*(11-2), Virginia Tech (12-1)
Big Ten- Wisconsin*(12-1), Nebraska (10-3)
Big 12- Oklahoma*(12-0), Texas A&M (10-2)
Big East- West Virginia* (10-2)
PAC-12- Oregon*(13-0), Utah (10-2)
SEC- Alabama*(12-1), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (10-3)
[Each conference may only have two representatives]
At-Large- Boise State* (12-0)
* Indicates Automatic Berth
Given the selection order:
BCS Championship: Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU (Replaces Oregon)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M (Replaces Oklahoma) vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Other Bowl Games after the Jump
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
2011 Preview: SEC
State of the Conference:
ESS EEE CEE!
ESS EEE CEE!
2010 Championship: Auburn def. South Carolina
2011 Projected Championship: Alabama def. South Carolina
Projected Finishes:
East:
1. South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
2. Georgia (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
3. Florida (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
4. Tennessee (6-6, 2-6 SEC)
5. Kentucky (5-7, 2-6 SEC)
6. Vanderbilt (3-9, 0-8 SEC)
West:
1. Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
2. LSU (10-2, 7-1 SEC)
3. Arkansas (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
4. Mississippi State (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
5. Auburn (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
6. Ole Miss (4-8, 1-7 SEC)
Surprise Team: Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is building a monster of a program. Too bad he's in such a stacked division. With a speedy offense, and a tough "D", the Bulldogs could compete in almost any division in the country. Too bad the SEC West isn't "almost every division in the country." Still, the Bulldogs will pull of a MAJOR upset this season, like maybe....
Upset Special: Mississippi State over Alabama
You heard it here first. Right after winning the LSU game to take a stranglehold on the Division, the Crimson Tide have to take a trip down to Starkville, to do battle with a very very good MSU team. Just sayin'. The Bulldogs could pull off a stunner.
ESS EEE CEE!
ESS EEE CEE!
2010 Championship: Auburn def. South Carolina
2011 Projected Championship: Alabama def. South Carolina
Projected Finishes:
East:
1. South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
2. Georgia (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
3. Florida (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
4. Tennessee (6-6, 2-6 SEC)
5. Kentucky (5-7, 2-6 SEC)
6. Vanderbilt (3-9, 0-8 SEC)
West:
1. Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
2. LSU (10-2, 7-1 SEC)
3. Arkansas (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
4. Mississippi State (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
5. Auburn (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
6. Ole Miss (4-8, 1-7 SEC)
Surprise Team: Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is building a monster of a program. Too bad he's in such a stacked division. With a speedy offense, and a tough "D", the Bulldogs could compete in almost any division in the country. Too bad the SEC West isn't "almost every division in the country." Still, the Bulldogs will pull of a MAJOR upset this season, like maybe....
Upset Special: Mississippi State over Alabama
You heard it here first. Right after winning the LSU game to take a stranglehold on the Division, the Crimson Tide have to take a trip down to Starkville, to do battle with a very very good MSU team. Just sayin'. The Bulldogs could pull off a stunner.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
2011 Preview: Big Ten
State of the Conference:
The Big Ten is, like its west-coast brethren, embarking on a new division-based adventure, and will hold the inaugural Big Ten Title Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. There are four new head coaches in the league, Minnesota's Kill, Indiana's Wilson, Ohio State's Fickell, and Michigan's Hoke. There is a new team in the league, and brand-new divisions, they-which-shall-not-be-named. All is new in the oldest major conference. Will the champion be too? With Ohio State and Michigan on the downswing, several other programs look to capitalize. Will it be the new kid, Nebraska? The upstart Wisconsin? Dark Horse Michigan State? We shall see.
2010 Champion: Wisconsin (Tied with Michigan State and Ohio State)
2011 Predicted Championship: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Predicted Finishes:
East(ish) Division
1. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1 B1G)
2. Ohio State (9-3, 5-3 B1G)
3. Penn State (8-4, 5-3 B1G)
4. Illinois (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
5. Purdue (5-7, 2-6 B1G)
6. Indiana (5-7, 1-7 B1G)
West(ish) Division
1. Nebraska (10-2, 6-2 B1G)
2(tie). Iowa (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Michigan State (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Northwestern (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
5. Michigan (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
6. Minnesota (4-8, 1-7 B1G)
Surprise Team: Illinois
Illinois will go to a bowl game two years in a row for the first time in a while, and along the way will knock off one of the three teams above it in their Division
Upset Alert: Northwestern over Iowa
This one is easy to call, because it happens every year. Iowa comes in with a long winning streak, and Northwestern wins 17-14 or some other ungodly score. Iowa QB throws inexplicable picks, and Iowa fans fume for another year.
The Big Ten is, like its west-coast brethren, embarking on a new division-based adventure, and will hold the inaugural Big Ten Title Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. There are four new head coaches in the league, Minnesota's Kill, Indiana's Wilson, Ohio State's Fickell, and Michigan's Hoke. There is a new team in the league, and brand-new divisions, they-which-shall-not-be-named. All is new in the oldest major conference. Will the champion be too? With Ohio State and Michigan on the downswing, several other programs look to capitalize. Will it be the new kid, Nebraska? The upstart Wisconsin? Dark Horse Michigan State? We shall see.
2010 Champion: Wisconsin (Tied with Michigan State and Ohio State)
2011 Predicted Championship: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Predicted Finishes:
East(ish) Division
1. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1 B1G)
2. Ohio State (9-3, 5-3 B1G)
3. Penn State (8-4, 5-3 B1G)
4. Illinois (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
5. Purdue (5-7, 2-6 B1G)
6. Indiana (5-7, 1-7 B1G)
West(ish) Division
1. Nebraska (10-2, 6-2 B1G)
2(tie). Iowa (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Michigan State (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Northwestern (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
5. Michigan (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
6. Minnesota (4-8, 1-7 B1G)
Surprise Team: Illinois
Illinois will go to a bowl game two years in a row for the first time in a while, and along the way will knock off one of the three teams above it in their Division
Upset Alert: Northwestern over Iowa
This one is easy to call, because it happens every year. Iowa comes in with a long winning streak, and Northwestern wins 17-14 or some other ungodly score. Iowa QB throws inexplicable picks, and Iowa fans fume for another year.
AP Top 25 is out.... Time to rant!
Here is the AP Top 25 for the preseason. My thoughts are below.
| AP Top 25 | |||
| RK | TEAM | RECORD | PTS |
| 1 | Oklahoma (36) | 0-0 | 1464 |
| 2 | Alabama (17) | 0-0 | 1439 |
| 3 | Oregon (4) | 0-0 | 1330 |
| 4 | LSU (1) | 0-0 | 1286 |
| 5 | Boise State (2) | 0-0 | 1200 |
| 6 | Florida State | 0-0 | 1168 |
| 7 | Stanford | 0-0 | 1091 |
| 8 | Texas A&M | 0-0 | 965 |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 0-0 | 955 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 0-0 | 910 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 0-0 | 900 |
| 12 | South Carolina | 0-0 | 848 |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 0-0 | 821 |
| 14 | TCU | 0-0 | 690 |
| 15 | Arkansas | 0-0 | 686 |
| 16 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | 530 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 0-0 | 519 |
| 18 | Ohio State | 0-0 | 443 |
| 19 | Georgia | 0-0 | 369 |
| 20 | Mississippi State | 0-0 | 361 |
| 21 | Missouri | 0-0 | 258 |
| 22 | Florida | 0-0 | 228 |
| 23 | Auburn | 0-0 | 219 |
| 24 | West Virginia | 0-0 | 207 |
| 25 | USC | 0-0 | 160 |
- Others receiving votes: Texas 114, Penn State 75, Arizona State 67, Miami (FL) 32, Utah 25, Southern Miss 20, Iowa 19, Brigham Young 15, North Carolina State 15, Air Force 14, Houston 13, Pittsburgh 9, Michigan 7, Tennessee 5, UCF 5, NORIL 4, Hawaii 4, Tulsa 3, Arizona 2, Maryland 2, Nevada 1, Northwestern 1, Washington 1
*-------------*-------------*-------------*-----------*
Some Thoughts:
- Not much beef with the Top 10, though I would contend that Stanford and Nebraska are both a bit high. I'd put both teams in the 10-15 range.
- Oklahoma State may be the 9th best team in the country, but they will never finish there. The Big 12, especially with that round robin schedule, will eat itself up.
- Arkansas might be a bit low at 15... I'd rank the hogs no lower than South Carolina (#12), for sure.
- Notre Dame is way too high. Yes, the Irish did improve over 2010, but there is simply no need to rank them all the way up at #16.
- WHY IS GEORGIA RANKED? I know it's not last year's team, but the last time we saw them, it was losing 10-6 to UCF to finish 6-7 on the year.
- On 8 SEC teams in the top 25... The SEC's good, no doubt. But because the conference is the best doesn't mean that its mediocre teams are the best as well, see Florida, Georgia.
- There is always always an AQ bias in these polls. Even for teams that are now AQ... I'd take Utah over most of the teams immediately ahead of it, especially Texas, Penn State, West Virginia, and Georgia.
- Poor Big East, last of the AQs... when will your time come again? Possibly never, though if you joined with the ACC you could compete with the Mountain West!!!
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