Friday, November 11, 2011

No Week 11 Predictions

I'm terribly busy and so won't be making predictions for this week or releasing new rankings. Hope to be back next week!

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Week 10 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 5-5
Overall Record: 57-33 (63.3%)

Saturday, November 5
Michigan 34 @ Iowa 22
Iowa's offense will strike quickly and often against the untested Michigan D, but it's not the offense that's given Iowa troubles this year. The defense simply can't contain the talented Michigan playmakers. This one goes back and forth for three quarters before the Wolverines pull it out in the fourth.

Texas Tech 27 @ Texas 35
Which Texas Tech team will show up, the one that beat Oklahoma in Norman, or the one that lost last week to lowly Iowa State? ("lost" is too kind a term... "beatdown" would be more accurate)
This Texas team has taken its fair share of bumps too, but the emerging Longhorn rushing attack will slow down the Red Raiders enough to take care of business.

Texas A&M 28 @ Oklahoma 40
A&M will add on a few scores in the second, but this won't be close. Oklahoma simply has too many playmakers on offense, and the Aggies will be the ones forced to come back from a halftime deficit. They won't.

Missouri 41 @ Baylor 34
If you like offensive football, this one is for you! Honestly, pick heads or tails on this one. Both teams will score with impunity and rack up points.

Vanderbilt 20 @ Florida 24
Interesting for the Gators in the Swamp. If this was in Nashville, I'd pick the Commodores, but once again, Vandy falls just shy of a monumental upset.

Cincinnati 33 @ Pittsburgh 21
Cincinnati is the cream of the Big East crop, and Pitt has fallen on some tough times. The offense just isn't clicking, and that's bad news with the Bearcats coming to town.

Kansas State 30 @ Oklahoma State 42
If you thought K-State got dinged up last week, wait for this one. But wait, the Wildcats may have learned their lesson. This time, they keep the ball firmly on the ground and exploit an OK-State defense that has been shaky at times. It's not enough though, as the Cowboys move on to take the #2 spot....

South Carolina 26 @ Arkansas 27
South Carolina has a Defense. Arkansas has an Offense. When South Carolina's anemic offense takes on Arkansas' porous defense, change the channel. ugh.

Oregon 48 @ Washington 31
The Huskies' defense has been suspect all year, especially against rushing teams (Nebraska and Stanford both put up 300+ rushing yards on UW). Oregon keeps the ball on the ground, and barring fumbles, runs away with this one, in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week.

Game of the Week!
LSU at Alabama
The more I think about this game, the more I think Alabama will win. Yes, LSU has played tougher opponents (West Virginia, Oregon) but 'Bama just runs over the competition. Barring any last minute Les Miles antics, the Tide will pull this one out. LSU gets under 250 total offense and the Bama defense turns Jarrett Lee into his former pick-6-ing self.
Alabama 27,  LSU 22

Monday, October 24, 2011

Week 9 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 52-28 (65%)

Friday, October 28
BYU 20 @ TCU 35

Saturday, October 29
Michigan State 30 @ Nebraska 24
Illinois 14 @ Penn State 20
Wisconsin 33 @ Ohio State 14
South Carolina 27 @ Tennessee 17
Clemson 36 @ Georgia Tech 32
Missouri 24 @ Texas A&M 35
Oklahoma 32 @ Kansas State 25
Georgia 23 vs. Florida 24 (in Jacksonville, FL)

Game of the Week
Stanford @ USC
The Cardinal have but two tests separating them from the Pac-12 Championship Game. First up is USC. This one will be close for all of a quarter, before Andrew Luck and the Cardinal Offense really start getting rolling.
Stanford 39, USC 20.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Week 8 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 5-5
Overall Record: 46-24 (65.7%)

October 22, 2011
Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 31

Washington 24 @ Stanford 40

North Carolina 25 @ Clemson 32

Penn State 26 @ Northwestern 15

Georgia Tech 37 @ Miami FL 27

USC 24 @ Notre Dame 30

Utah 26 California 17

Maryland 22 @ Florida State 35

Auburn 12 @ LSU 36

Game of the Week
Wisconsin @ Michigan State
Wisconsin will have trouble running the ball "Ball" against the Spartans, and Russel Wilson won't be nearly as sharp, but it will be the Wisconsin Defense that steps up the the plate, holding the Spartans in check.
Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 16.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Week 7 Predictions

Last Week: 8-2
Overall Record: 41-19 (68.3%)

Saturday, October 15
Arizona State 24 @ Oregon 41

Oklahoma State 34 @ Texas 21

South Carolina 30 @ Mississippi State 27

Ohio State 17 @ Illinois 31

Virginia Tech 21 @ Wake Forest 20

Michigan 31 @ Michigan State 28

Kansas State 21 @ Texas Tech 35

Florida 26 @ Auburn 28

Miami FL 23 @ North Carolina 30

Baylor 45 @ Texas A&M 42

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Week 6 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 5-5
Overall Record: 33-17 (66%)

Saturday, October 8
Florida 13 @ LSU 23

Missouri 38 @ Kansas State 24

Miami FL 17 @ Virginia Tech 27

Iowa 17 @ Penn State 9

Auburn 34 @ Arkansas 38

Michigan 34 @ Northwestern 28

Texas A&M 42 @ Texas Tech 35

Ohio State 10 @ Nebraska 21

TCU 30 @ San Diego State 28

Game of the Week!
Oklahoma vs Texas
Dallas, TX

Oklahoma 38, Texas 21

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week 5 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 28-12 (70%)

Thursday, September 29
South Florida 31 @ Pitt 21
USF is looking like the class of the Big East (whatever that means).


Saturday, October 1
Texas A&M 31 vs Arkansas 28 (in Arlington, TX)
Both teams lost last week, but A&M has the defense and the consistency on offense to take on Arkansas.


Alabama 30 @ Florida 17
Florida isn't going to knock off the Tide. They're not even the best team in their division... which is....


Northwestern 30 @ Illinois 40
The Wildcats are Persa-strong... but the Illini have a pretty good guy at QB too... along with 21 other talented positions. Illinois' run game is too strong for Northwestern.


Auburn 31 @ South Carolina 35
I know Garcia has been... well... Garcia lately, but what better way to get an offense on track than to square up against the porous Auburn D?


Notre Dame 42 @ Purdue 20
The Irish are due for a big win, and though the Boilers have played the Domers close over the years, this one won't be.


Michigan State 20 @ Ohio State 17
The Spartans haven't won in Columbus since 1998, but this Ohio State team is probably the weakest in decades. It's now or never for Michigan State to make a statement they belong in the upper echelon of the Big Ten.


Clemson 21 @ Virginia Tech 24
The Tigers are 4-0... now they can throw in the yearly clunker. If there's a place to do it, it's Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech is nigh unbeatable.


Washington 31 @ Utah 45
The Utes' first PAC-12 game could turn into a shootout, but Utah's defense will come up with big stops late to pull out the "W".


GAME OF THE WEEK!
Nebraska at Wisconsin

The Analysis:
Nebraska's run defense will be sorely tested by Wisconsin's tandem of Montee Ball and James White. Maybe too tested. Wisconsin +2
On the other hand, Wisconsin hasn't seen an offense even close to Nebraska's. Wisconsin's run defenders will be its cornerbacks, as the Huskers like to spread out the field and run around, rather than through, defenses. Nebraska +1
Madison is a tough place to play at night. Wisconsin has only lost 3 times at night under Coach Bielema. Wisconsin +1


The Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 24.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Week 4 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 7-3
Overall Record: 20-10

Busy Week! Some great games on tap this weekend. The Thursday night game may be underwhelming, but Saturday offers some great matchups!

North Carolina 21 @ Georgia Tech 34
Preparing for Georgia Tech's unique option attack isn't a blessing. Just ask Kansas. The Yellow Jackets put up over SIX HUNDRED yards rushing against the Jayhawks, and over 750 all together. UNC's defense is a tad better than Kansas', but come on.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Week 3 Predictions

Overall Record: 13-7

Thursday, September 15
LSU 24 @ Mississippi State 20
The Tigers have some trouble with the Bulldogs in the house of cowbell, but the Mad Hatter gets it done.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 2

This week's record: 6-4
Overall Record: 13-7

What a crazy weekend... Michigan's late rally held off the Irish (and saved me from a 5-5 pick) in dramatic fashion... This week offers no simpler test for the Irish, who have to host Michigan State... btw, those same Spartans held Florida Atlantic to just 48 total yards, and one... ONE first down... South Carolina may have hammered the last nail into Mark Richt's coaching career... Georgia doesn't tolerate losing, and if the Bulldogs finish worse than second in the division, Richt will be gone by December... Alabama looked good beating up Penn State, with its young quarterback McCarron making large strides from his disastrous first week performance versus Kent State. (2 INTs in half a game of work)... speaking of quaterbacks, Texas still doesn't have one. All three were poor against BYU.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Week 2 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 7-3
Overall Record: 7-3

Friday, September 9
Missouri 17 @ Arizona State 24
The Tigers' Offense looked mediocre at best against Miami OH last week, and Arizona State is hungry to show that they're a Pac-12 contender. The Sundevils win a tight one.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Hindsight is 20/20 -Week 1

Week 1 Record: 7-3
2011 Overall Record: 7-3

A week in review:
Russell Wilson looks like the real deal at Wisconsin - First Big Ten Championship Game appearance for the Badgers might be sown up... Robert Griffin is the real deal - the Baylor quarterback should probably be the real Heisman front-runner... BYU, Houston, and Northwestern all pulled off upsets... 3-0 in that field for the week! ... the Pac-12 doesn't look great this week, with new members Colorado (L, Hawaii) and Utah (W, Montana State) not looking great, and Oregon State losing to Sacramento State... Minnesota surprised many by almost pulling off the monumental upset of Southern California - Jerry Kill might turn around the Gophers sooner than many thought... Does anyone actually have a good reason as to why Boise State is unworthy of the BCS any more?... a Holtz won in South Bend again. It's been too long.

GOTW:
LSU beat up on Oregon, especially on defense, where the Tigers smothered the Ducks' O. But it was on special teams that LSU really shined. However, can I say that neither team really impressed me? Oregon struggled against a good defense again, and LSU won by a combination of luck and Les-Miles-ness. LSU might be the number 2 team in the country according to the polls, but I'm not convinced. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but until then, count me a skeptic.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Week 1 Predictions

It's that time of year again! Each week, I will be making my predictions as to the outcome of each week's top ten games. Usually I will select the games that ESPN's College Pick'em does, though notably, I will include non-Saturday games.

Thursday, September 1
UNLV 14 @ #11 Wisconsin 41
Though UNLV should be improved this year, they are simply no match for the Badgers at Camp Randall. Wisconsin puts up big numbers on the ground, and Russell Wilson doesn't even need to pass in the second half.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

2011 Preview: Bowl Game Predictions

This year's selection order: (Championship), (Rose), Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

If a bowl with automatic tie-ins loses a team to the national championship, then it can select a replacement team first. (This year, I predict that will be the Rose (Oregon) and the Fiesta (Oklahoma)

In General, only 10+ win teams from AQ conferences are selected for BCS bowls. Of course, 9-3 teams have been selected before (Illinois) but this was generally considered a bad idea, and it is likely that every BCS bowl participant in 2012 will have ten or more wins.

Teams qualifying for BCS games:
ACC- Florida State*(11-2), Virginia Tech (12-1)
Big Ten- Wisconsin*(12-1), Nebraska (10-3)
Big 12- Oklahoma*(12-0), Texas A&M (10-2)
Big East- West Virginia* (10-2)
PAC-12- Oregon*(13-0), Utah (10-2)
SEC- Alabama*(12-1), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (10-3)
[Each conference may only have two representatives]
At-Large- Boise State* (12-0)

* Indicates Automatic Berth

Given the selection order:

BCS Championship: Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU (Replaces Oregon)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M (Replaces Oklahoma) vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. West Virginia

Other Bowl Games after the Jump

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

2011 Preview: SEC

State of the Conference:
ESS EEE CEE!
ESS EEE CEE!

2010 Championship: Auburn def. South Carolina

2011 Projected Championship: Alabama def. South Carolina

Projected Finishes:
East:
1. South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
2. Georgia (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
3. Florida (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
4. Tennessee (6-6, 2-6 SEC)
5. Kentucky (5-7, 2-6 SEC)
6. Vanderbilt (3-9, 0-8 SEC)
West:
1. Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
2. LSU (10-2, 7-1 SEC)
3. Arkansas (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
4. Mississippi State (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
5. Auburn (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
6. Ole Miss (4-8, 1-7 SEC)

Surprise Team: Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is building a monster of a program. Too bad he's in such a stacked division. With a speedy offense, and a tough "D", the Bulldogs could compete in almost any division in the country. Too bad the SEC West isn't "almost every division in the country." Still, the Bulldogs will pull of a MAJOR upset this season, like maybe....

Upset Special: Mississippi State over Alabama
You heard it here first. Right after winning the LSU game to take a stranglehold on the Division, the Crimson Tide have to take a trip down to Starkville, to do battle with a very very good MSU team. Just sayin'. The Bulldogs could pull off a stunner.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

2011 Preview: Big Ten

State of the Conference:
The Big Ten is, like its west-coast brethren, embarking on a new division-based adventure, and will hold the inaugural Big Ten Title Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. There are four new head coaches in the league, Minnesota's Kill, Indiana's Wilson, Ohio State's Fickell, and Michigan's Hoke. There is a new team in the league, and brand-new divisions, they-which-shall-not-be-named. All is new in the oldest major conference. Will the champion be too? With Ohio State and Michigan on the downswing, several other programs look to capitalize. Will it be the new kid, Nebraska? The upstart Wisconsin? Dark Horse Michigan State? We shall see.

2010 Champion: Wisconsin (Tied with Michigan State and Ohio State)

2011 Predicted Championship: Wisconsin over Nebraska

Predicted Finishes:
East(ish) Division
1. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1 B1G)
2. Ohio State (9-3, 5-3 B1G)
3. Penn State (8-4, 5-3 B1G)
4. Illinois (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
5. Purdue (5-7, 2-6 B1G)
6. Indiana (5-7, 1-7 B1G)
West(ish) Division
1. Nebraska (10-2, 6-2 B1G)
2(tie). Iowa (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Michigan State (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
2(tie). Northwestern (8-4, 4-4 B1G)
5. Michigan (7-5, 4-4 B1G)
6. Minnesota (4-8, 1-7 B1G)

Surprise Team: Illinois
Illinois will go to a bowl game two years in a row for the first time in a while, and along the way will knock off one of the three teams above it in their Division

Upset Alert: Northwestern over Iowa
This one is easy to call, because it happens every year. Iowa comes in with a long winning streak, and Northwestern wins 17-14 or some other ungodly score. Iowa QB throws inexplicable picks, and Iowa fans fume for another year.

AP Top 25 is out.... Time to rant!


Here is the AP Top 25 for the preseason. My thoughts are below.


AP Top 25
RKTEAMRECORDPTS
1Oklahoma (36)0-01464
2Alabama (17)0-01439
3Oregon (4)0-01330
4LSU (1)0-01286
5Boise State (2)0-01200
6Florida State0-01168
7Stanford0-01091
8Texas A&M0-0965
9Oklahoma State0-0955
10Nebraska0-0910
11Wisconsin0-0900
12South Carolina0-0848
13Virginia Tech0-0821
14TCU0-0690
15Arkansas0-0686
16Notre Dame0-0530
17Michigan State0-0519
18Ohio State0-0443
19Georgia0-0369
20Mississippi State0-0361
21Missouri0-0258
22Florida0-0228
23Auburn0-0219
24West Virginia0-0207
25USC0-0160