Week 4 Predictions

Week 3 Record: 8-2
2010 Overall Record: 22-8 (73.3%)

Good games on this week's slate.

Thursday, September 23
Miami 21 @ Pittsburgh 17. Miami fell flat in their last home game in Columbus, Ohio. But Heintz Field is no Ohio Stadium, and Pittsburgh is no Ohio State.


More predictions after the break.


Saturday, September 25
Virginia Tech 28 @ Boston College 23. I anticipate a close game broken open by a special teams miscue. This one could go either way.


UCLA 13 @ Texas 28. The Bruins hang around for a half, but can't score enough to keep the lead.


Stanford 35 @ Notre Dame 24. Notre Dame doesn't have the defense to slow down the mighty Cardinal attack.


Nevada 41 @ BYU 31. Nevada's bulldozing opponents to open the season. This is the type of game that Nevada likes to lose. The result will tell us a lot about this team's ceiling - 8-5 and 3rd place in the WAC, or a serious challenger to Boise hegemony?


South Carolina 20 @ Auburn 17. Auburn is the odds-makers' favorite, but I seriously don't know why. South Carolina has the SEC's best run defense, the best tailback not in Tuscaloosa, and didn't play the draining overtime thriller Auburn endured last week.


Oregon State 20 @ Boise State 34. The Broncos rarely lose on the Blue. Chris Peterson NEVER loses on the Blue. (He is 26-0 (!!!) at home.)


West Virginia 17 @ LSU 19. The Big East's only really decent team has to go on the road against a good-not-great Tiger team. LSU always finds a way to win these games - Here's betting they enter the fourth quarter down, but pull it out in the end.


Georgia 20 @ Mississippi State 17. Does the Georgia slump end in Starkville? Tough call. A win would be landmark for Dan Mullen's young squad, while a Georgia loss would turn up the heat substantially on Mark Richt's seat.

GOTW! Alabama at Arkansas.
The top-10 showdown in Fayetteville.

• Alabama Offense vs. Arkansas Defense. Alabama brings its stellar ground game against an Arkansas defense that was... bad... last year. This year the D is looking up for the Hogs, but they've not yet played a team the caliber of the Crimson Tide. Bama -3
• Arkansas Offense vs. Alabama Defense. Alabama's Defense replaces more than half of its starters from last year, and the secondary is largely untested. Going against the ferocious Razorback passing attack will give us a good idea about how far they have to go. Arkansas +1
• Home-field advantage. This is the biggest game in Fayetteville in many years. Hogs fans are hog-wild about their star QB, and the Tide is amped about its terrific tandem of Richardson and Ingram. Arkansas +1
• The Stat. Arkansas is just 8-22-1 when playing games in which both teams are ranked in the top 10. Alabama is 31-27-1 in such matchups. Bama -1

The Verdict: Alabama -2

Arkansas wins if: The Bama secondary can't stop the Hogs' passing attack.

Alabama wins if: The running game gets going and doesn't stop.

The Prediction: Arkansas scores early, but is worn down by steady doses of Ingram and Richardson.

Alabama 31, Arkansas 27.