The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

It's bowl season!
I'll be making predictions for all 35 (!!!) bowl games. 35, you say? Yes, 35. Which brings me to some points, numbered for your convenience:

1. There are too many bowl games.
2. They have stupid names.
3. They have stupid corporate names.
4. Their corporate sponsors don't even try to make their bowl names about football.

These problems combine to make The Most Wonderful Time of the Year downright unwatchable at times, if only because I shudder to think of Lou Holtz blubbering over "San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl" or "Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl."

How's this for a general rule: Bowl games should never be more than 2 words long, including "Bowl." And The Rose Bowl gets a "The" and a "Game." Otherwise, 2 words. There are something like 200,000 words in the English language. Pick one, and name your bowl game. You can put your corporate logo below it.

Hindsight is 20/20: Week 14

So we come to it at last: the end of the regular season.
Last week's record: 7-3
Overall Regular Season Record: 95-45 (67.9%)
vs. the Machine: 37-37 (50%)


Let's go back to my BOLD PREDICTIONS at the beginning of the year and see how I did....


Sun Belt: 
The Prediction: Middle Tennessee goes on to win the Sun Belt Championship.
Did it happen? No. The Sun Belt was a mess this year, won by 6-6 (6-2) Florida International.
Thought of the year: It's a bad sign when your conference champion goes 0-4 non-conference.


MAC:
The Prediction: Temple Wins the MAC.
Did it happen? No. The Owls went 8-4, beating Big East Champ UConn, but... were left out of a bowl. ...and THAT, my friends, is this week's sign of the apocalypse.
Thought of the year: It was expected that Central Michigan would drop off a bit... but at 3-9... wow.


C-USA:
The Prediction: Houston goes undefeated, but gets left out of the BCS.
Did it happen? No. Not even close. Though, I should add, in my defense, I did not expect both the 1st and 2nd string QBs to be knocked out for the season... in the same game (@UCLA, week 2).
Thought of the year: UCF is cementing its place as a power in Florida. In weeks 11 and 12 it was the highest-ranked team in the state.


WAC:
The Prediction: Idaho almost beats Boise. They finish second in the conference, and Vandals quarterback Nathan Enderle puts up 3500 yards passing.
Did it happen? No... but... Enderle put up 3314 yards, so I was close. oh, and the Boise thing, I don't know what I was smoking.
Thought of the year: A three-way tie for 1st? What is this, the Big 12 South? Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise tied for first with Nevada's improbable come-back win over the Broncos.


Mountain West:
The Prediction: There is a three-way tie for first place in the MWC. TCU beats BYU; BYU beats Utah; Utah beats TCU.
Did it happen? No. TCU took the title and beat the other two over the head with it.
Thought of the year: The Mountain West conference of 2012 looks suspiciously like the WAC of 2010. hmm...


Pac-10:
The Prediction: Oregon State wins the 'Civil War' against Oregon, claiming the (last?) PAC-10 title.

Did it happen? Not in the slightest. This prediction was just embarrassingly wrong.

Thought of the year: Well, the Pac-10 has Stanford, Oregon, and... and... 7-5 Arizona. oh, and guilt-ridden and NCAA-sanctioned USC. Ooh Ooh! I know! The best 6-6 team in the country (Arizona State)? Ok. Let's admit it. This conference has seen better years.

Big East:
The Prediction: Connecticut wins the Big East (!!!)
Did it happen? YES! Of all my predictions, this was, in my opinion, by far the most dicey. So it counts more than all the ones I got wrong.
Thought of the year: Wow, this is a BCS conference?


ACC:
The Prediction: Duke goes to a bowl game.

Did it happen? No. That's all.

Thought of the year: Hey, everyone! The ACC champion lost to James Madison! point and laugh!

Big Ten:

The Prediction: Michigan goes bowl-less again, finishing 5-7.

Did it happen? Nope. The wolverines are headed for a date with Mississippi State on the 1st. Unfortunately for Rich Rod, he still managed to lose 5 of his last 7. Congrats!

Thought of the year: Was Michigan State actually that good? We still don't know. We do know, however, that Wisconsin, as they're playing now, could beat anyone in the country. I'd take them over either Oregon or Auburn, easy.

Big 12:

The Prediction: Baylor goes to a bowl game.

Did it happen? YESSSS. The Bears went 8-4, and even were sitting in 1st place in the Big 12 South for a time. (!!!)

Thought of the year: The Big 12 had 5 solid teams, each of which could have (and did) beat all the others. What wonderful parity.

SEC:

The Prediction: LSU disappoints going 8-5. Les Miles leaves for Michigan.

Did it happen? Yes, LSU disappointed, screwing up in every way possible. But No. They won 10 games. Yes, Les Miles wants to leave. No, It's not for Michigan. He'd just rather be out in a pasture, that's all.

Thought of the year: Cam "Take the Money and Run" "Son of a Preacher Man" Newton. 'Nuff said.

Week 14 Predictions

Week 12 Record: 7-3
2010 Overall Record: 88-42 (67.7%)
VS the Machine: 30-31 (49.2%)
Hmm... there aren't a whole bunch of games to choose from this week. 2 Big East games and 3 Pac-10? Yuckkkk...
*the only different computer pick is that FSU beats VT, 31-29


Thursday, December 2
#32 Arizona 34 @ #80 Arizona State 20

Friday, December 3
*MAC Championship Game: #22 Northern Illinois 42 vs. #44 Miami (OH) 21

Saturday, December 4
#82 Rutgers 10 at #24 West Virginia 28

#3 Oregon 45 @ #61 Oregon State 24

#57 Connecticut 24 @ #50 South Florida 28

#36 USC 31 @ #81 UCLA 17

*Conference USA Championship Game: #47 Southern Methodist 27 @ #27 UCF 38

*ACC Championship Game: #21 Florida State 24 vs. #17 Virginia Tech 27

*Big 12 Championship Game: #9 Oklahoma 21 vs. #14 Nebraska 17

Game of the Week: SEC Championship Game: #1 Auburn vs. #18 South Carolina
Auburn 31, South Carolina 23
This one makes me uneasy, but I have to go with the higher-probability choice. Can South Carolina win? Sure. Auburn is by no means the most dominating #1 team in memory (and perhaps the least). But it will be difficult, and Auburn has certainly proven itself capable of blowouts as well as comebacks. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, Auburn represents a challenge similar to Arkansas, one that USC failed terribly.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 13

Last week's record: 7-3
2010 Overall Record: 88-42 (67.7%)
VS the Machine: 30-31 (49.2%)

Week 13 Stream of Consciousness: Texas experienced its first losing season since 1998. Nothing is more sweet to the Aggies than denying Texas of a bowl game... What. The. Heck. Auburn. Surely never has a championship contender won in so many close calls and ferocious comebacks.... The Ducks are headed for a date with Auburn in Glendale, so long as they don't pull a 2007 West Virginia-esque meltdown in their last game at 5-6 Oregon State... BOISE LOST?!?.... Michigan didn't have a chance against the superior speed of the little sisters of the. . . ahem, Ohio State... Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has cemented himself as one of the best QBs in the country. Sadly, he is outshone in his own division by Mr. Money-bags... The Utes have had a slightly disappointing end to a season that started out so strong... How far has Florida fallen? Far. Just not as far as Texas... South Carolina will put up more of a challenge for Auburn than people think. . . upset? idk.... aaaand the Sooners take Bedlam yet again. Years of utter domination don't end in a single night... unless you're Boise State.


Week 13 WTF?
WTF, college teachers? You gave me too much homework this week to do a proper Hindsight!


Game of the Week: Oklahoma 47 - Oklahoma State 41
GOTW Record: 8-5 (61.5%)

More Machine than Man - Week 13

Last week: More Machine than Man (9-8)
Overall: 23-23 (+/-0) 50%

Computer Picks for Week 13:

Texas A&M 28, Texas 19
Alabama 30, Auburn 27
Oregon 39, Arizona 21
Boise State 41, Nevada 26
Ohio State 42, Michigan 23
Arkansas 28, LSU 26
Utah 31, BYU 19
Florida State 25, Florida 24
South Carolina 22, Clemson 19
Oklahoma State 36, Oklahoma 33

*Since the Man and the Machine have the same picks this week, the tie-breaker will be a special tie-breaker upset pick.


The Man predicts Penn State will beat Michigan State, 23-17.
The Machine predicts a Spartan win, 27-21

Week 13 Predictions

Week 12 Record: 8-2
Week 12 vs. the Machine's Record: 8-9 (-1)
Overall Record: 81-39 (67.5%)
Overall vs. the Machine: 23-23 (+/-0) (50%)

Thursday, November 25
#20 Texas A&M 17 at #63 Texas 9. An Aggies win would give A&M its first 9-win season since 1998, and Texas its first losing season since 1997. Texas will be lucky to score on the Wrecking Crew. A&M rolls in Austin.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 12

Week 12 Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 81-39 (67.5%)

Week 12 Stream of Consciousness: Fresno State is no pushover, and Boise beat them 51-0, holding the Bulldogs' prolific offense to just over 200 total yards. Say whatever you want about the schedule. When this team is on, they are really, REALLY good... Wisconsin's win at the Big House was just its second in last 20 tries... Stanford has solidified its place as one of the best one-loss teams in the country. Andrew Luck is on fire, even after losing RB Toby Gerhart off last year's record-setting team... Iowa came close to knocking off the Buckeyes, but came up just short, again - last year Iowa seemed to pull out through the close ones. This year, not so much... Virginia Tech will make the trip to Charlotte for the ACCCG for the 4th time in 6 years, to face either NC State or Florida State... It took Arkansas two overtimes to dispatch Mississippi State, another indication that the Bulldogs are on the way up under Dan Mullen. The Hogs are a win against LSU away from third place in the toughest division in football... Jimbo Fisher's team is one NC State loss away from advancing to the ACCCG, a remarkable achievement for the first-year head coach... Speaking of which, the Wolf Pack defeated instate rival UNC to take control of its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic. Hats off to coach O'Brien, whose tenure at the school after leaving Boston College has been full of too many downers... At Wrigley Field, the offenses could only go one direction down the field due to cramped quarters in one endzone, which the Illini did quite well, racking up over FIVE HUNDRED yards rushing on Northwestern.

More Machine than Man - Week 12

Week 11 vs. the Man: 7-7

Week 12 vs. the Man: 7-8

This week's computer picks:

#50 Fresno State 20 @ #4 Boise State 46.
#9 Wisconsin 40 @ #30 Michigan 31.
#8 Stanford 31 @ #60 California 19. 
#7 Ohio State 29 @ #22 Iowa 19.**
#17 Virginia Tech 28 @ #26 Miami 22. 
#14 Arkansas 28 @ #21 Mississippi State 18. 
#29 Florida State 28 @ #31 Maryland 22. 

#31 NC State 28 @ #47 North Carolina 22. 
#57 Illinois 29 @ # 40 Northwestern 21.**

#10 Nebraska 29 @ #18 Texas A&M 26.**

**indicates computer picked straight-up different outcome

Week 12 Predictions

Week 11 Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 73-37 (66.4%)


Friday, November 19
#50 Fresno State 21 @ #4 Boise State 47. How many times do I have to write it: Boise simply does not lose at home. Ever.

Saturday, November 20
#9 Wisconsin 34 @ #30 Michigan 24. Wisconsin just has too much offense for the Wolverine's much-maligned defense to handle.


#8 Stanford 30 @ #60 California 20. THE GAME. Cal is respectable at home, and horrendous on the road. Stanford comes into Strawberry Canyon looking to stay in the BCS race (sort of).


#7 Ohio State 20 @ #22 Iowa 24. UPSET SPECIAL! The Hawkeyes are tremendous in Kinnick Stadium, their sole loss to #9 Wisconsin by 1 point in the final minute. Ohio State hasn't played anyone. No, seriously. Ohio State has a worse strength of schedule to this point than Boise or TCU. (but better than Oregon!)


#17 Virginia Tech 31 @ #26 Miami 17. With a win, Va Tech crushes any hopes Miami had of winning the ACC. Hokies roll.


#14 Arkansas 45 @ #21 Mississippi State 34. The Hogs' Offense will dismantle Miss State's D, and the Bulldogs simply don't have the firepower to keep up.


#29 Florida State 30 @ #31 Maryland 17. Thought about calling the upset here, but Florida State has its eyes on the prize of an ACCCG berth (yes, this is a desireable thing in some places on planet earth).


#31 NC State 28 @ #47 North Carolina 17. North Carolina has the athletes to pull off the upset. Unfortunately, most of them are sitting on the bench, indefinitely.


#57 Illinois 19 @ # 40 Northwestern 27. Gameday comes to Chicago and Wrigley Field for the first football game within the ballpark in decades. Illinois is coming off perhaps the worst loss (it's hard to be precise; there have been so very many bad ones in Zook's time) in the last decade to an abysmal Minnesota team. Northwestern is riding high off a win over Iowa. Those patterns will continue this week.

Game of the Week: #10 Nebraska @ #18 Texas A&M
GOTW Record: 7-4

• Nebraska Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense. The teams are very evenly matched, A&M's rush D is excellent, as is Nebraska's rush offense. The Aggies have been torched through the air, but Nebraska doesn't throw much. +/-0
• Texas A&M Offense vs. Nebraska Defense. The Aggies are going to have to force the run, because there is no way a still-new starting QB breaks the Nebraska Secondary where Jake Locker, Nathan Enderle, Justin Weeden, and Blaine Gabbert have failed. Luckily the NU rush defense is relatively soft. +/-0
• Turnovers. The Aggies are beset by turnovers, which the Nebraska D thrives on. Interceptions will be extremely costly versus the Huskers. Neb -1
• The 12th Man. The Aggies are ready to have a rowdy environment for the Huskers when they arrive in College Station. But the Huskers actually do better on the road than at home, where they have won 9 straight Big 12 road contests. +/-0

The Verdict: Nebraska -1

The Pick: Well, a very big part of me says the Aggies are going to continue their hot streak. Another part says Nebraska's road winning streak is quite impressive. But all streaks have to break sometime. This one says it'll be the Huskers': Texas A&M 31, Nebraska 27.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 11

Last Week's Record: 8-2
More Man than Machine (7-3)
2010 Overall Record: 73-37 (66.4%)


Tied for best week of the year!

Week 11 Stream of Consciousness: Missouri took command of second place in the Big 12 North thanks largely to 4 KSU turnovers. The Tigers can still win the division if Nebraska loses its last two games... What on earth was that, Utah? Notre Dame? Seriously... There are plenty of boosters out there willing to give $200,000 for their team to get to the BCS. Just my opinion... The computer very nearly guessed the score of OSU-PSU. Joe Pa scored the most points he's ever scored at Ohio Stadium, then simply stopped scoring... OU is just barely over 0.500 in away games the last three years, and  exactly 1.000 in home games... The best team in the ACC is Virginia Tech. Who lost to James Madison, lest we forget... Texas A&M has really come on in the last three weeks. Now for the biggest-test of the year. Nebraska... Bama has a chance to knock off rival Auburn and deny the Tigers a chance at the National Championship. Carit ask for much more in a Rivalry game... I got the upset pick (USC over Arizona)! Suck it, computer!

More Machine than Man - Week 11

Computer picks for Week 11:

Kansas State 20, Missouri 25
Utah 34, Notre Dame 20
Georgia 29, Auburn 35*
Ohio State 33, Penn State 14*
Texas Tech 26, Oklahoma 35
Virginia Tech 33, North Carolina 22*
Texas A&M 34, Baylor 27
Alabama 23, Mississippi State 14
Arizona 29, USC 27**
Florida 27, South Carolina 23

*computer pick has much different margin of victory than mine
**computer pick is straight-up different

Week 11 Predictions

Last Week's record: 7-3
Overall Record: 65-35 (65%)

Going for 100% this week!

Saturday, November 13
#28 Kansas State 15 @ #15 Missouri 31. Kansas State is fresh off a win over free-falling Texas, while Missouri was physically dominated in its last two games against Nebraska and Texas Tech. If this game was in Manhattan, the Wildcats might even be favored. But on Senior Day in Columbia, Bill Snyder's crew will fall to third in the Big 12 North.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 10

This week's record: 7-3

2010 record: 65-35 (65%)

Week 10 Stream of Consciousness: How many ACC teams wish they could have gotten to play Virginia Tech in Week 2 instead of Week 10?... There were 105 points scored the last time Michigan and Illinois met in a game. The game of basketball. 67-65 Seriously? TCU's only given up 85 - ALL YEAR... Oklahoma State racked up 725 total yards, whipping Baylor like they wer the Bears of old. However, Baylor still stands at number 2 in the Big 12 South (see "This week's sign of the apocalypse")... Boise rocked Hawaii, while Kellen Moore put up over 500 yards passing. The Broncos' D did a fine job slowing down a Warriors' attack that put up 36 points and 500 yards on USC... The Huskers' QB was out. And his backup. The wind blew at 35mph in Ames, and the Cyclones very nearly pulled off another shocker... Florida State gave up 436 passing yards to UNC, and the yearly "ACC Wheel! Of! Destiny!" has begun (see "Week 10 WTF?!?")... The Mad Hatter strikes again, and I will eat my hat... Stanford became the first team to score more than 30 on Arizona. Don't worry, Wildcats! You'll have more chances to give up 30. You still have to play Oregon!!!... Arkansas took advantage of the Gamecocks' suspect pass defense, but it was the ease at which the Hogs ran the ball that should give Spurrier the most nightmares, as he faces Florida next week in the SEC-East "championship game."

More Machine than Man - Week 10

The computer wants to pick, too! We'll see who comes out on top.
The program is able to calculate projected scores and yardage totals, as well as other stats. Here's what the computer has to say about this week's games:

Georgia Tech 22 @ Virginia Tech 37 (Correct)
Illinois 31 @ Michigan 26
Baylor 33 @ Oklahoma State 41
Hawaii 24 @ Boise State 40
Nebraska 42 @ Iowa State 19
North Carolina 20 @ Florida State 26
Alabama 24 @ LSU 16
Arizona 25 @ Stanford 27
Arkansas 28 @ South Carolina 25
TCU 28 @ Utah 23

Keep in mind, the computer ranks teams, does not predict them. This was an exercise to see whether the formulas can be used in the future as well. We'll see!

Week 10 Predictions

Last Weeks' Record: 4-6
2010 Overall Record: 58-32 (64.4%)


Thursday, November 4
#52 Georgia Tech 17 @ #28 Virginia Tech 30. Virginia Tech's bounced back nicely from its devastating 0-2 start. The road to their 4th ACCCG in 6 years is wide open.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 9

Not a good week for ranked teams. Not a good week for me.
Week 9 Record: 4-6
2010 Overall Record: 58-32 (64.4%)


Week 9 Stream of Consciousness: And I would have been right about FSU if it wasn't for QB Ponder fumbling away the ball at the NC State 4 yard line... No Blackmon (Okla. State WR) no problem. OSU put up almost 600 yards on hapless K-State... Iowa slammed Michigan State, leading 30-0 at halftime en route to a 37-6 victory for the Hawkeyes... Florida found it had an offense. And Georgia remembered it was the same team that lost to Colorado, and has no defense... What's worse than losing at home to UCLA and Iowa State? Losing to UCLA, Iowa State, and Baylor. Why do I keep doubting Texas opponents? UT may be the worst year-after-a-BCS-national-championship-appearance team in history... Oregon-USC went just as I expected. Lots of offense, lots of scoring. Oregon wins... How did Penn State score 41? Is Michigan's defense really that bad???... Auburn rolls. War Eagle!... East Carolina just got beat, no bones about it. Now UCF has a leg up on the CUSA-East race (and probably the conference championship).

Week 9 Predictions

Last week's record: 6-4
2010 Record: 54-26 (67.5%)

Thursday, October 28
#17 Florida State 30 @ #30 North Carolina State 24. The Wolfpack will hang around, but Florida State simply has more talent.

Saturday, October 30
#13 Oklahoma State 45 @ #27 Kansas State 28. Kansas State gave up almost 600 yards to Nebraska and almost 700 to Baylor. What will the cowboys put up?

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 8

Week 8 Record: 6-4
2010 Record: 54-26 (67.5%)

Week 8 Stream of Consciousness: Oregon has scored 368 points in 480 minutes of football... Iowa State pulled off the shocker beating Texas, but should it have been so shocking? Apart from a (defensively-only) dismantling of Nebraska, the Horns have looked average at best this year... Called the spread! Wisconsin nudged Iowa by 1 due to the hard-nosed Badger running backs... Oklahoma State broke Nebraska's 21-or-less streak, but Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez broke the all-time Nebraska record for total offense by a freshman, with 435 yards, and became the first Husker QB to run for over 100 and pass for over 300 in a game... Baylor racked up the yards on the startlingly slow KSU D, passing for over 400 and rushing for almost 300 yards... Mizzou took it to the Sooners (who should have led by multiple TDs at the break), who wore down as the game went on. Next up, at Lincoln for all the Big 12 North marbles... Arizona QB Nick Foles out? No problem... Illinois put together its  most complete game thus far. That loss to Missouri looks better and better now doesn't it?... Clemson got revenge for the twice-over beatings by GT last year. This year, there won't be a rematch in the ACCCG. And there was much rejoicing.

Week 8 Predictions

Week 7 Record: 6-4
2010 Record: 48-22 (68.6%)

Thursday, October 21
UCLA 20 @ Oregon 38
UCLA is reeling. Oregon should roll. Friday update: Oregon has scored 368 points in 7 games.

Saturday, October 23
Iowa State 13 @ Texas 31. Regardless of the score last week, Texas still doesn't have an offense (QB Gilbert was 4-16 for 62 yards against the 'Huskers). But Iowa State is reeling from back-to-back blowouts to Utah and Oklahoma.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 7

Week 7 Record: 6-4
2010 Overall Record: 48-22 (68.6%)

What a week to pick all the favorites. Jeez.


Week 7 Stream-of-Consciousness. KSU beat the Jayhawks by 52? Nebraska might beat Kansas by 100. Who would have thought that Michigan State would be the Big Ten's sole undefeated team halfway through the season? Missouri has quietly put together an undefeated record... Neb Coach Bo Pelini has a better record on the road than at home... Auburn has offense. Arkansas has offense. I take offense at the lack of defense.... Iowa didn't really slow Michigan's offense, but they did win.... What is Cal's deal this year? Oh wait, it's Cal.... What are the Florida faithful saying after a disastrous 4-3 start? Lee Corso picked them to go to the National Championship Game, hahahaha..... Without WR Rogers, Oregon State is toast. With Jake Locker, the Huskies are just sometimes toast.

Week 7 Predictions

Week 6 Record: 6-4
2010 Overall Record: 42-18 (70%)


Thursday, October 14
Kansas State 24 @ Kansas 13. Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's leading rusher of 2009, is eager to show his pathetic performance against Nebraska was a fluke in the Sunflower State Showdown with 2-3 Kansas.

Hindsight is 20/20 -Week 6

Week 6 Record: 6-4
2010 Overall Record: 42-18 (70%)


Week 6 Stream of Consciousness: Taylor Martinez is fast. I mean, really FAST. He made the entire KSU defense look like they had lead bricks in their shoes... Stephen Garcia is number 5 in the NCAA in pass efficiency? Hear that sound? That is the sound of the galloping horses of the apocalypse... A&M is bad. Why couldn't Arkansas capitalize? perhaps the "gulf" between the SEC and the rest of the country isn't as great as some thought... What has happened to Pitt???... Oregon State took it to Arizona, setting up a rematch of last year's "Civil War" for the (last) PAC-10 title... Upset? No. The Utes stuck it to Iowa State, scoring 68 (68!!!) on the Cyclones' defense, in Ames... Upset? Almost... I was so so close to getting this one (Kentucky over Auburn), but alas... It's official. Les Miles worships Satan. Spread the word... Wow Ohio State is good-they beat a Miami team in a hard-fought game... that just got pounded by the same FSU team that was destroyed by OU...

Week 6 Predictions

Week 5 Record: 7-3
2010 Record: 36-14 (72%)

Well, It could be worse, but it could be a lot better too. I have yet to go worse than 7-3, but also have not gone better than 8-2... Hoping it changes this week... for the better!


Thursday, October 7
Nebraska 31 @ Kansas State 16. Nebraska takes its number 4-nationally-ranked rush offense against the Big 12's worst rush defense (195.5 ypg). Uh-oh.

Hindsight is 20/20 -Week 5

Week 5 Record: 7-3

2010 Record: 36-14  (72%)

 Week 5 Stream of Consciousness: Jerrod Johnson's killer stats were the reason the Aggies were close to pulling it out; his 5 turnovers were the reason they didn't... Denard Robinson is still a god, but Michigan's defense looks worse every week... Texas is in danger of having its first 3-loss streak under Mack Brown...  Oklahoma could be simultaneously the best (vs FSU) and worst (vs Cinci and USU) team in the top 10... Michigan State's Rush Defense made a huge statement against Wisconsin. Next up, Mr. Robinson and the Wolverines... Is Jacory Harris a good, or terrible QB? Few remain who know... Iowa's defense bounced back... Penn State's offense is troubling... Bet Meyer wishes he did retire afterall: without Tebow, the Gators' offense is nothing... Locker had a nice bounce-back- against the worst pass defense in the PAC-10...  Va Tech's season isn't over... yet...

Week 5 Predictions

Week 4 Record: 7-3
2010 Record: 29-11 (72.5%)

Busy week, so I have a guest picker: Tori Espensen-Sturges!
I added my thoughts below, if I disagreed.

Thursday, September 30

Texas A&M 20 at Oklahoma State 27- The game depends on which Texas A&M team shows up: the lackluster one that got pummelled by Florida International throughout most of the game last week, or the determined one that mounted a fierce comeback in the fourth. 

Hindsight is 20/20- Week 4

Week 4 Record: 7-3
2010 Overall Record: 29-11 (72.5%)

Week 4 Stream of Consciousness:  The Big 12 is bad. The ACC is worse. And the Big East is worse than terrible...  BC has no offense. Neither does Texas...  Stanford looks like a top-10 team. Notre Dame is 1-3. How many Irish are still singing Brian Kelly's praises?...  So Boise has a competitor in the WAC-Nevada cracked the AP top 25. The WAC now has as many top 25 teams as the Big East and ACC combined...  South Carolina! I finally pick you, and you go give away the game! What gives, Spurrier?...  Boise's blue turf obviously isn't the reason they're good -Oregon State, painted your practice field blue I see. Well, how did that turn out for you? Is it possible this team is just... Good? Nah...  Still not sold on LSU. How can you hope to compete in the SEC if you can't throw the ball?...  Georgia's reeling after a third straight loss... "Mark Richt must go!" *sarcasm*...

Week 4 WTF?

WTF, Big 12 Conference?  You look like the toast of the college football world then go out and throw massive clunkers. Every team has now looked bad in a game they shouldn't have. Notable examples:  Colorado lost 52-7 to Cal, who just got trounced by Nevada. Nebraska squeaked by FCS South Dakota State.  Kansas LOST to FCS North Dakota State.  Kansas State needed two 4th quarter TD drives to beat UCF. Missouri very nearly lost to (the other) SDSU on the same night Texas A&M needed 21 fourth quarter points to overcome Florida International.  Oklahoma State was pushed to the brink by Troy.  OU has had 3 close calls: Utah State, Air Force , and Cincinnati. And Texas lost to a 2-2 UCLA squad that only managed 27 passing yards.

 Game of the week-Alabama 24, Arkansas 20
 GOTW Prediction Record: 3-1 (75%)
 Why I was right:

•  Alabama's Secondary finally gelled in the fourth quarter, forcing costly interceptions that ultimately sealed the game.
•  Arkansas could move the ball, but couldn't seem to score.
•  Alabama's running backs pounded away, finally gaining traction against the Hog's (improved) defense.

Week 4 Predictions

Week 3 Record: 8-2
2010 Overall Record: 22-8 (73.3%)

Good games on this week's slate.

Thursday, September 23
Miami 21 @ Pittsburgh 17. Miami fell flat in their last home game in Columbus, Ohio. But Heintz Field is no Ohio Stadium, and Pittsburgh is no Ohio State.


More predictions after the break.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 3

Week 3 Record: 8-2
2010 Overall Record: 22-8 (73.3%)

I was 8-0 going into the last two games of the night, but alas....

Week 3 Stream of Consciousness: Kansas gets my award for most inconsistent play. Loss to N.Dakota State, Win against Georgia Tech. Loss to So.Miss. What's next for old KU? I wish I felt like Turner Gill knew... Georgia Tech got it done against a team missing 12 starters. Congrats. ... Ryan Mallett is the best QB in the SEC. Too bad his team can't play defense... Virginia Tech's season isn't completely lost.... Jake Locker lost a million dollars for each pass he threw (and, on Saturday, 30% of those were caught. and 33% of those caught were by the guys with the 'N' on their helmets.)... BYU is going to struggle for even 4th place in the Mountain West this year... Auburn got soooo lucky. SEC! SEC! SEC! ... Texas looked bad. Texas Tech looked worse. ... Houston lost its starting QB. Then its backup QB. ouch.

Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 Prediction Record: 7-3

2010 Overall Record: 14-6 (70%)

Friday, September 17

Kansas 24 @ Southern Miss 27. Which Kansas team will show up - the one that lost to FCS North Dakota State, or the one that beat #15 Georgia Tech? Guess is somewhere in the middle. Southern Mississippi is no pushover, and Hattiesburg will be rocking for this game. A young Kansas team on the road = minor upset by the Golden Eagles. But really, I feel like these teams are evenly matched, and I could see this one swing either way.


More predictions after the break.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 2

Week 2 Prediction Record: 7-3
2010 Overall Record: 14-6 (70%)

Gaa another subpar week... I'll have to kick it up next time out!

Week 2 Stream of Consciousness: Auburn's offense has a hard time scoring when in position. So does Mississippi State's.... South Carolina has a rushing offense, and has a leg up on the East division title ?!? ...Florida still isn't dominating inferior opponents like they used to (and pollsters pretend they still are)... Oklahoma faked us out last week - shame on you Bob Stoops. And enjoy the next family get-together... Michigan's missing two things: a quarterback missing tied laces, and a defense missing teeth... Colorado spent too much time reveling at being in the Pac-10 and forgot they were just there visiting, this time. California impressed, but, it WAS Colorado... Alabama proves they can win just fine without an injured Ingram (sub Richardson is tearing it up). So how is he still on people's Heisman lists???... Oregon scored 45 unanswered points against Tennessee. The Vols' depth is clearly lacking... Stanford's QB Luck looked human, but luckily UCLA's offense is sub-human.

Week 2 Predictions

Week 1 Prediction Record: 7-3
2010 Overall Record: 7-3 (70%)

Looking forward to some great games this week!

Thursday, September 9
Auburn 32 @ Mississippi State 28. The Tigers might be overlooking State, but the Bulldogs did plaster Memphis this past week, while Auburn gave up 26 points to Arkansas State. I feel like picking Miss. State, I really do. ... It's just... well, I have more faith in Auburn's Offense than Mississippi State's, and neither defense will do much to stop the other offense.


More games after the break.

Hindsight is 20/20 - Week 1

Week 1 Prediction Record: 7-3 
Overall 2010 Record: 7-3 (70%)

I was spot-on with some picks; with others I was way off. I'll go through my picks, gloating my successes and mourning my failures.

IT'S HERE! Week 1 picks

The 2010 College Football Season is upon us! Now for some last-minute predictions for this week. Some have changed from earlier this summer due to new developments / suspensions (sorry, UNC).

Each week I will have 10 predictions (usually games that interest me, whether they are big matchups (Boise-VaTech) or below-the-radar games (Northern Illinois-Iowa State?). I'll pick games that I could see going either way. Feel free to comment on selections - see you on the other side of *fingers crossed* 10 out of 10!

Win, Lose, or Draw: Conference Realignment Analysis

The circus of conference realignment, though not as major as some prognosticators were predicting, was the talk of the summer. With BYU the last wild card (for now), I thought I'd do a conference realignment special, with analysis for each affected conference.

*BYU announced that they would become independent for the 2011 season.

The easiest way to do this is to say, "what if last year's team was in its new conference?" Of course, this does not imply future success (looking at you, Nebraska) or continued futility (can the Buffaloes rise again?). But it is a fun way of looking at how this offseason's changes affect college football.

Winners: Big Ten, PAC-10
Losers: WAC, Mountain West (w/o BYU)
Draw: Big 12

2009 Conferences in Review: #1 SEC

And the conference ranked #1 in my 2009 Conference Rankings is... the SEC.

2009 Conference Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide 14-0 (8-0 SEC)
2009 Conference Runner-up: Florida Gators 13-1 (8-0 SEC)

2009 Bowl Record: 6-4

Bold Prediction for 2010: LSU disappoints (again) and goes 8-5. Les Miles leaves for Michigan.

2009 Conferences in Review: #2 Big 12

The Big 12 Conference occupies #2 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Texas Longhorns 13-1 (8-0)
2009 Conference Runner-up: Nebraska Cornhuskers 10-4 (6-2)

2009 Bowl Record: 4-4

Bold Prediction for 2010: Baylor goes to a bowl game.

2009 Conferences in Review: #3 Big Ten

The Big Ten Conference occupies #3 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)

2009 Bowl Record: 4-3

Bold Prediction for 2010: Michigan goes bowl-less again, finishing 5-7 (again).

2009 Conferences in Review: #4 ACC

The Atlantic Coast Conference ranks #4 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 11-3 (7-1 ACC)
2009 Conference Runner-Up: Clemson Tigers 9-5 (6-2 ACC)

2009 Bowl Record: 3-4

Bold Prediction for 2010: Duke goes to a bowl game.

2009 Conferences in Review: #5 Big East

The Big East Conference occupies #5 on my 2009 Conferences Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Cincinnati Bearcats 12-1 (7-0 Big East)

2009 Bowl Record: 4-2

Bold Prediction for 2010: Connecticut wins the Big East. (!!!)

2009 Conferences in Review: #6 PAC-10

The PAC-10 sits at #6 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Oregon Ducks 10-3 (8-1 PAC-10)

2009 Bowl Record: 2-5

Bold Prediction for 2010: Oregon State wins the 'Civil War' against Oregon, claiming the (last?) PAC-10 title.

2009 Conferences in Review: #7 Mountain West

The Mountain West Conference occupies #7 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: TCU Horned Frogs 12-1 (8-0 MWC)

2009 Bowl Record: 4-1

Bold Prediction for 2010: There is a three-way tie for first place in the MWC. TCU beats BYU; BYU beats Utah; Utah beats TCU.

2009 Conferences in Review: #8 WAC

The Western Athletic Conference comes in #8 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Boise State Broncos 14-0 (8-0 WAC)

2009 Bowl Record: 2-2

Bold Prediction for 2010: Idaho almost... almost... beats Boise in what could be the last game between these two rivals in a long, long time. Idaho finishes second in the conference, and Vandals quarterback Nathan Enderle puts up 3500 yards passing.

2009 Conferences in Review: #9 Conference USA

Conference USA occupies #9 in my 2010 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: East Carolina Pirates 9-5 (7-1 C-USA)

2009 Conference Runner-Up: Houston Cougars 10-4 (6-2 C-USA)

2009 Bowl Record: 2-4

Bold Prediction for 2010: Houston goes undefeated, but gets left out of the BCS.

2009 Conferences in Review: #10 MAC

The Mid-American Conference occupies #10 in my 2009 Conference Rankings

2009 Conference Champion: Central Michigan Chippewas 12-2 (8-0 MAC)
2009 Conference Runner-Up: Ohio Bobcats 9-5 (7-1 MAC)

2009 Bowl Record: 1-4

Bold Prediction for 2010: Temple wins the MAC.

2009 Conferences in Review: #11 Sun Belt

The Sun Belt Conference occupies #11 in my 2009 Conference Rankings.

2009 Conference Champion: Troy University Trojans 9-4 (8-0 Sun Belt)

2009 Bowl Record: 1-1

Bold Prediction for 2010: Middle Tennessee beats Minnesota in Week 1 and goes on to win the Sun Belt Championship.

Lightsheaber's 2009 Conference Breakdown

In my Conference Breakdown Segment, I will rank conferences using a weighted average, where the conference's best teams count slightly more toward overall rank, but not so much so to offset having extremely poor teams at the bottom. In my weekly column during the season, I will look at the major conference games of the last week and give my thoughts on the games of the next week.

The 2009-10 Conference Rankings:

1	SEC	0.5700
2	BIG 12	0.5671
3	BIG TEN	0.5668
4	ACC	0.5610
5	BIG EAST	0.5584
6	PAC-10	0.5528
7	MTN WEST	0.5523
8	WAC	0.5428
9	C-USA	0.5420
10	MAC	0.5233
11	SUN BELT	0.5175

2009-10 Postseason Rankings

Ranking	Team	W	L	Points
1	Alabama	14	0	0.823
2	Texas	13	1	0.780
3	Boise State	14	0	0.775
4	Florida	13	1	0.774
5	Ohio State	11	2	0.746
6	Texas Christian	12	1	0.745
7	Cincinatti	12	1	0.741
8	Iowa	11	2	0.737
9	Oregon	10	3	0.728
10	Brigham Young	11	2	0.724
11	Virginia Tech	10	3	0.721
12	Penn State	11	2	0.715
13	Pittsburgh	10	3	0.714
14	Wisconsin	10	3	0.704
15	Georgia Tech	11	3	0.700
16	Nebraska	10	4	0.692
17	Central Michigan	12	2	0.686
18	Utah	10	3	0.679
19	Miami FL	9	4	0.670
20	West Virginia	9	4	0.662
21	LSU	9	4	0.661
22	USC	9	4	0.657
23	Oklahoma State	9	4	0.651
24	Navy	10	4	0.644
25	Texas Tech	9	4	0.643
26	Houston	10	4	0.642
27	Middle Tennessee State	10	3	0.638
28	Troy	9	4	0.637
29	Mississippi	9	4	0.636
30	Clemson	9	5	0.629
31	Rutgers	9	4	0.627
32	Oklahoma	8	5	0.625
33	Arkansas	8	5	0.614
34	East Carolina	9	5	0.608
35	Georgia	8	5	0.606
36	Auburn	8	5	0.606
37	Connecticutt	8	5	0.605
38	Arizona	8	5	0.604
39	North Carolina	8	5	0.603
40	Oregon State	8	5	0.602
41	Air Force	8	5	0.595
42	Stanford	8	5	0.595
43	Missouri	8	5	0.594
44	Boston College	8	5	0.586
45	Temple	9	4	0.584
46	Nevada	8	5	0.583
47	Ohio	9	5	0.581
48	South Florida	8	5	0.580
49	Idaho	8	5	0.576
50	California	8	5	0.576
51	Southern Methodist	8	5	0.569
52	UCF	8	5	0.569
53	Fresno State	8	5	0.567
54	Northwestern	8	5	0.564
55	Florida State	7	6	0.543
56	South Carolina	7	6	0.540
57	Tennessee	7	6	0.530
58	UCLA	7	6	0.530
59	Marshall	7	6	0.523
60	Bowling Green	7	6	0.515
61	Iowa State	7	6	0.513
62	Kentucky	7	6	0.510
63	Southern Mississippi	7	6	0.508
64	Wyoming	7	6	0.501
65	Notre Dame	6	6	0.498
66	Northern Illinois	7	6	0.484
67	Kansas State	6	6	0.477
68	Michigan State	6	7	0.460
69	Minnesota	6	7	0.453
70	Texas A&M	6	7	0.451
71	Louisiana Monroe	6	6	0.451
72	Louisiana Lafayette	6	6	0.448
73	Hawaii	6	7	0.423
74	Mississippi State	5	7	0.422
75	Washington	5	7	0.417
76	Purdue	5	7	0.412
77	Kansas	5	7	0.405
78	UAB	5	7	0.405
79	Wake Forest	5	7	0.403
80	North Carolina State	5	7	0.396
81	Buffalo	5	7	0.391
82	UNLV	5	7	0.388
83	Michigan	5	7	0.386
84	Florida Atlantic	5	7	0.384
85	Toledo	5	7	0.376
86	Tulsa	5	7	0.373
87	Kent State	5	7	0.371
88	Duke	5	7	0.370
89	Army	5	7	0.364
90	Western Michigan	5	7	0.357
91	Syracuse	4	8	0.322
92	Baylor	4	8	0.322
93	Arizona State	4	8	0.320
94	Louisville	4	8	0.320
95	Utah State	4	8	0.313
96	Louisiana Tech	4	8	0.311
97	Indiana	4	8	0.308
98	UTEP	4	8	0.305
99	San Diego State	4	8	0.301
100	Arkansas State	4	8	0.293
101	Colorado	3	9	0.243
102	Illinois	3	9	0.239
103	Virginia	3	9	0.231
104	Colorado State	3	9	0.229
105	Akron	3	9	0.224
106	Florida International	3	9	0.224
107	Tulane	3	9	0.223
108	New Mexico State	3	10	0.199
109	Memphis	2	10	0.164
110	Maryland	2	10	0.163
111	Vanderbilt	2	10	0.163
112	San Jose State	2	10	0.160
113	Rice	2	10	0.160
114	North Texas	2	10	0.157
115	Ball State	2	10	0.154
116	Miami OH	1	11	0.111
117	Washington State	1	11	0.108
118	New Mexico	1	11	0.107
119	Eastern Michigan	0	12	0.065
120	Western Kentucky	0	12	0.063